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Search resuls for: "Employment Dynamics"


8 mentions found


☆ 'This is where you start bear markets from': A notorious bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns stock-market conditions resemble a major peak more than any time in the last 100 years
  + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, —, it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
☆ 'Big downside revisions coming': A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns jobs data will shockingly turn sour in the next 6 months — and says a stock-market AI bubble is starting to unrav
  + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
☆ The Fed is focusing on 'flawed' data and keeping rates high will result in a big policy mistake, economist says
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Read previewThe Federal Reserve's fixation on a streak of "flawed" data to justify keeping interest rates higher for longer is bound to spark a policy mistake, according to top economist David Rosenberg. "The Fed seems to be focusing not just on flawed data, but on headlines only. Finally, he noted that the Fed's long-term view of the economy as still hot based on non-farm payroll data was dashed by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Business Employment Dynamics. Rosenberg pointed out that the payroll report may be exaggerating actual employment by 70,000 per month. Meanwhile, BED data indicated a 192,000 drop in private employment in Q3 of last year, whereas private job payroll data reported a significant 521,000 increase in that time.
Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Quarterly, Employment Dynamics
☆ Some of the biggest optimists on Wall Street see 3 threats to a strong labor market
  + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
The labor market may be returning to pre-pandemic conditions, Goldman Sachs found. "Broadly speaking, our analysis indicates a labor market returning to pre-pandemic norms, best characterized as a somewhat tight labor market that does not pose an inflation problem," the economists wrote. AdvertisementRecently, labor market data has been somewhat all over the place. Though these findings may point to a recovering labor market reminiscent of pre-pandemic times, GS noted some headwinds. GS also found that the labor market is at a higher risk of what it called "deterioration" in 2024 than in 2019.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Service, GS, Labor, of Labor Statistics, ISM Services, Goldman, Federal Reserve, Employment Dynamics Locations: JOLTS
☆ The US minimum wage has been $7.25 since 2009. What that means for the economy
  + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Efforts to raise federal minimum pay have fallen flatHowever, despite numerous efforts, raising the federal minimum wage above $7.25 an hour has been unsuccessful. Lagging the rising cost of livingIn many ways, the federal minimum wage seems like a relic of the past. Recent wage gains could be lostThe actual economic impact of a federal minimum wage increase is heavily debated. “The new conventional wisdom is that at least a moderate minimum wage increase has minimal effects on employment,” Reich told CNN. “But this new paper says that a really big minimum wage increase actually increases employment.”
Persons: Ken Rose, he’s, ” Rose, Sandy, ”, Michael Reich, Biden’s, ” Yannet Lathrop, Lathrop, Alex Wong, hasn’t, Rose, “, ” Ken Rose, Ken Rose Joe Bishop, ” Bishop, Reich, ” Reich Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, Tiburon Fine, CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic, Institute, Dynamics, University of California, Democrats, National Employment, U.S, Capitol, United Auto Workers, United, Walmart, Costco, Starbucks, Tiburon, Congressional Locations: Sandy , Utah, American, Berkeley, Washington ,, United States, Amazon, Utah, Louisville , Kentucky, Louisville, Jefferson County , Kentucky
☆ US weekly jobless claims post largest rise in 5 months; labor market still tight
  + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
"Even after factoring in the latest increase, jobless claims are exceptionally low by historical standards, underscoring just how tight labor market conditions still are," said Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out weekly fluctuations, climbed 4,000 to 197,000 last week. Claims had stayed below 200,000 for seven straight weeks, indicating that high-profile job cuts in the technology sector had not had a material impact on the labor market. Goldman Sachs believed residual seasonality accounted for about half of last week's rise in claims. The labor market is, however, cooling on the margins.
☆ The Fed may wreck one of the greatest booms in history of Main Street America
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
As interest rates rise, inflation lingers and home equity that many business founders use to get started shrinks, small business formations are doing something unexpected – they're rising. If the data persists, the resilience in small business formation points to a "new plateau" of activity that may add millions of jobs to the economy, Haltiwanger says. But the risks include the Fed itself choking off financial conditions so much that the small business boom is smothered. Danny Sweis opened his in the summer of 2022. If that lasts, that means 4 million per year, offset by 2.5 million lost as other small businesses close.
☆ From 'labor hoarding' to layoffs: Get ready for a brutal U-turn in the job market
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( George Pearkes | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
This desire for positivity may explain the popularity of a hot, new theory about the job market: labor hoarding. A bet on the futureThe idea of labor hoarding is basically an assumption about the bet that companies are making on the future of the labor market and customer demand. Another helpful tool to see how businesses are adapting to the labor market is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' quarterly Business Employment Dynamics report. Instead, we're seeing a more-balanced response consistent with a tight labor market that is losing some steam. So when the real pain starts, there's a good chance the US will quickly shift from labor hoarding to layoffs.
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